Cheaper shipping via melting Arctic route 'may hurt Singapore'

THE cost of shipping between Asia, the United States and Europe could be slashed when melting ice allows ships to take a shorter route through the Arctic, says a report out this month.

It also warns that the new route could mean Singapore's importance as a port could decline.

Global warming is set to have a fundamental impact on Arctic marine transportation, says The Atlantic Online.

Ships will begin transiting the North Pole as the ice there melts, significantly reducing journey times.

'At the same time, heavily trafficked southern shipping routes linking East Asia to Europe and to America's east coast could see less traffic, and port cities along that route - such as Singapore - might decline,' it says.

Earlier reports have said that a typical 35-day journey between Britain and Japan could be shortened by up to 13 days by using the Northern Sea Route (NSR).

The route was the subject of a 1993-1999 study called the International Northern Sea Route Programme (Insrop).

But while Mr Claes Lykke Ragner, former head of the Insrop secretariat, told The Straits Times he was 'sure there would be less Europe to North-east Asia transit traffic passing by Singapore', analysts appear to agree that the impact of the NSR on Singapore will be minimal.

For a start, Mr Ragner said: 'I don't think import and export to and from Singapore would be much influenced.'

And Mr Peter Schwartz, co-founder of Global Business Network, a consultancy that advises organisations on future trends, said: 'If you think about a ship sailing from the UK to Singapore, it usually stops off at other ports along the way to drop off cargo and pick up fresh containers.

'Some trade would move northward, but nothing that would make any noticeable difference to Singapore.'

Comments from Singapore port operator PSA Corp were unavailable at press time.

Meanwhile, until the ice melts back far enough, cargo vessels will need tougher hulls to pass through ice built up over several years - even with assistance from Russian ice-breakers.

'And that would of course make vessels quite a lot more expensive,' said Mr Ragner.

Other hindrances include current draft restrictions - the depth to which a vessel is immersed - of 12.5m or less in places.

The antiquated Russian set-up for navigating the NSR, which is currently used during the summer months by Russian vessels delivering supplies to northern villages, also poses a problem for ships attempting the Arctic route.

'Today the NSR is not fully functional and requires more robust charting, communications and port services,' said Dr Lawson Brigham, deputy director of US Arctic Research Commission.

So when will the NSR become a viable option for commercial vessels?

'Impossible to say,' said Mr Ragner.

And by the time the NSR becomes a viable option, Mr Schwartz says that trade patterns will already have changed anyway.

'China and India will be the largest economies in the world, manufacturing will have changed and the pattern and movement of goods will likely be different,' he said.